Saturday 23 December 2023

Latest Presidential Polls: Trump Posts His Largest Lead In GOP Primary, Consistently Tops Biden In General Election

Former President Donald Trump has hit his largest GOP primary polling lead in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls as he also enjoys a consistent lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup.

Trump is polling at a dominant 63.8% in RCP’s average of national Republican primary polls as of Friday morning. The former president holds a 52-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (11.6%), who has dropped nearly three points since last month and is now neck-and-neck with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (10.8%).   

The Republican candidates are just weeks away from their first true test in the Iowa caucuses on January 15 and then the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire on January 23. Trump’s polling lead in Iowa stands at 32 points as he pulls 51.3% support to DeSantis’ 18.6% and Haley’s 16.1%. In New Hampshire, Trump has a less comfortable lead, sitting at 46.3% while Haley comes in second at 24.8%. 

The latest polls of Iowa and New Hampshire showed Haley on an upward trajectory. In Iowa, the former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. was tied with DeSantis for second place at 17% in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll, while she led DeSantis 17% to 15% in an Emerson survey conducted last weekend. The most recent Fox Business poll of Iowa showed DeSantis leading Haley 18% to 16% while Trump remained the dominant leader at 52%. 

The latest poll of New Hampshire conducted by St. Anselm showed Trump leading Haley by just 14 points. In the poll, Trump sat at 44% to Haley’s 30% while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie came in third at 12%. DeSantis (6%) and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (5%) came in third and fourth, respectively, in the New Hampshire survey of nearly 2,000 likely primary voters. A UMass Lowell poll of 450 likely primary voters conducted earlier this month had markedly different results, showing Trump at 52%, Haley at 22%, DeSantis in third at 10%, Christie at 6%, and Ramaswamy at 4%.

Most early polls of the 2024 general election also show Trump in the lead. As of Friday morning, the former president leads Biden 46.8% to 44.5% in the RCP average. Trump’s polling lead comes amid even more controversy surrounding the former president after a Colorado Supreme Court ruling banned him from the state’s ballot. The state Supreme Court’s ruling cited the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause, arguing that he took part in an insurrection on January 6, 2021, “inciting the crowd that breached the U.S. Capitol.” 


Senior White House and Biden campaign officials were reportedly angered by the ruling. A source familiar with discussions in the Biden White House and Biden campaign told NBC News that the decision makes it look “like Colorado is attempting election interference through non-elected Democratic-appointed justices with funding from ‘shady left-wing donors.’”

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