Milan University Study Estimates 20 Million Italians with Coronavirus - Case Mortality Rate May be in 0.25% to 0.30%, Much Lower than Predictions

A Milan University study estimates up to 20 million Italians are covid-19 “cases” including mildly/asymptomatic persons. So case-fatality ratio may eventually be a maximum of 50,000-60,000 deaths/20 million, or 0.25% to 0.30% mortality rate.

Andrew Bostom@andrewbostom

Milan U study estimates up to 20 million (m) Italians are covid19 “cases” incl. mildly/asymptomatic persons, so case-fatality ratio may eventually (i.e., now 15.4K “official” deaths) be a max of 50-60K deaths/20m, or 0.25% to 0.30% https://rep.repubblica.it/pwa/locali/2020/04/03/news/milano_la_ricerca_dell_universita_statale_i_contagi_reali_in_italia_potrebbero_essere_5_milioni_-253027121/?ref=RHPPTP-BH-I253056306-C12-P3-S5.4-T1 …

La ricerca dell'Università Statale: "I contagi reali in Italia? Potrebbero essere 5 milioni"

I dati sono stati raccolti tra il 27 e il 30 marzo su un campione di mille persone tra i 18 e gli 85 anni

rep.repubblica.it

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1:34 AM - Apr 5, 2020

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It also looks like the coronavirus pandemic in Italy has peaked.
Via Alex Berenson. 

Alex Berenson

✔@AlexBerenson

 · 13h

1/ I called the Italian peak 12 days ago; in retrospect, that was about 5 days early. In any case, Italy has now peaked; Spain probably has too (remember, deaths LAG). The final Italian toll will probably be in the range of the 25-45,000 excess deaths of the 2016/17 flu season...

Alex Berenson

✔@AlexBerenson

2/ Here’s a peer-reviewed paper in Italian flu mortality from 2014-2017 - the numbers are pretty brutal. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285 …

163

12:47 AM - Apr 5, 2020

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