Wednesday, 21 October 2020

Pollster who predicted 2016 election says Donald Trump is on track to win again with the help of 'hidden' support from quiet voters who don't do polls

 The pollster who predicted the 2016 election result says Donald Trump is on track to win the presidency again bolstered by his 'hidden' support.

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly says Trump is likely to be re-elected based off polls from this month that show him in a slight lead in key states. 

Cahaly says those polls don't include Trump's 'hidden' fans who do not want to identify themselves by participating in polls for fear of retribution for supporting Trump. 

'I see the president winning with a minimum [electoral vote count in the] high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,' Cahaly said on Hannity on Fox News Tuesday night.

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly says Trump is likely to be re-elected thanks to votes by his 'hidden' supporters. 'What we¿ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what we refer to as the shy Trump voter,' he said

Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly says Trump is likely to be re-elected thanks to votes by his 'hidden' supporters. 'What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what we refer to as the shy Trump voter,' he said

Cahaly says Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, where most polls show a stalemate or show Biden with a slight lead

Cahaly says Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, where most polls show a stalemate or show Biden with a slight lead

Back in 2016 the Georgia-based poll group was one of the few that showed Trump leading in Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan on the eve of voting day. Trump eventually won all those states.

Now Cahaly says Trump will win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia, where most polls show a stalemate or show Biden with a slight lead.

'What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what we refer to as the shy Trump voter,' he said.

'There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions readily on the telephone. These people are more hesitant to participate in polls. So if you’re not compensating for this ... you’re not going to get honest answers,' he added.

Two weeks out to the election some 35million Americans have already voted.


Trafalgar's October 11-13 poll of 1,025 likely voters in Michigan show Trump in the lead by one point with 46.5 percent of support compared to Biden's 45.9 percent

Trafalgar's October 11-13 poll of 1,025 likely voters in Michigan show Trump in the lead by one point with 46.5 percent of support compared to Biden's 45.9 percent

Cahaly says Trump will win Ohio, where according to Trafalgar's October 1 to 3 poll Trump was leading with 47.6 percent compared to Biden at 43.9 percent

Cahaly says Trump will win Ohio, where according to Trafalgar's October 1 to 3 poll Trump was leading with 47.6 percent compared to Biden at 43.9 percent

The Trafalgar¿s latest polls, from a survey of 1,051 likely voters from October 14 to 16 show Biden leading Wisconsin with just one point at 47.5 percent compared to Trump¿s 46.3 percent

The Trafalgar’s latest polls, from a survey of 1,051 likely voters from October 14 to 16 show Biden leading Wisconsin with just one point at 47.5 percent compared to Trump’s 46.3 percent

Cahaly also predicts Trump will win Georgia. This July poll found he was six points ahead of Biden with 49.8 percent of support. Cahaly noted most other polls show Biden in the lead in Georgia

Cahaly also predicts Trump will win Georgia. This July poll found he was six points ahead of Biden with 49.8 percent of support. Cahaly noted most other polls show Biden in the lead in Georgia

The Trafalgar’s latest polls, from a survey of 1,051 likely voters from October 14 to 16 show Biden leading Wisconsin with just one point at 47.5 percent compared to Trump’s 46.3 percent.

Trafalgar’s polls show Trump ahead of Biden by one percentage point in Michigan, two points in Florida, four points in Arizona, and four points in Ohio, according to October surveys.

The group also has Trump ahead in Georgia with 48.8 percent support according to a July 14 to 17 survey of 1,023 likely voters.

Cahaly said the Hunter Biden controversy involving his foreign business dealings could put a spin on most pundits¿ predictions. Joe Biden pictured above Monday in Wilmington, Delaware

Cahaly said the Hunter Biden controversy involving his foreign business dealings could put a spin on most pundits’ predictions. Joe Biden pictured above Monday in Wilmington, Delaware

The polls also show Biden leading by one point in Pennsylvania and Trump and Biden dead even at 46 percent in Minnesota, according to an August poll.

Cahaly said the Hunter Biden controversy involving his foreign business dealings could put a spin on most pundits’ predictions. 

'If the president uses this effectively at the debate [Thursday] when a more bipartisan audience is paying attention and puts [Biden] on the spot, I think Biden might crack, kind of like he did in the primaries,' Cahaly said.

'And if that happens, well, then the mainstream media is going to have to cover it,' he said.

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