Saturday, 11 April 2020

Victor Davis Hanson: An Accurate Coronavirus Mortality Rate Will “Lead to Greater Confidence”and Allow America to Get Back to Work

Victor Davis Hanson was on with Laura Ingraham yesterday where he weighed in on the coronavirus panic and loss of freedoms. He also mentioned the flawed models which are being used to take away our freedoms which we first discussed a month ago.  

Ingraham asked Hanson about how Americans have given up their individual rights and freedoms:
Ingraham:  She we be asking questions now and not later?
Hanson: Yeah, I think it’s a bad idea.  It will end up creating two castes of citizens, those who test positive and have antibodies and they’re free to do more things than the ones who don’t.  So we don’t want to do that.
What we’re interested in is the number, not the individuals.  We want to know how many cases – how many people have antibodies?  Because as we’ve been working with an unknown denominator here – a denominator that’s false, and that has given all sorts of misinformation. 
Once we do representative surveys and once we find out who has antibodies and what the percentage of the population is that had the virus, that’s the key, not the individuals.  And then we can really get an accurate idea of what the mortality rate [is] and that will lead to greater confidence and allow us to go back to normality. 


Hanson is right and we have been saying this for a month.  On March 16th we reported that the coronavirus mortality rate promoted by the World Health Organization (WHO) was way over stated:
The current estimate for the fatality rates on the coronavirus just doesn’t add up.  The estimates based on current data are completely inaccurate. Current data shows that this virus is much less deadly that even the common flu from the 2019-2020 season.
The fatality rate that is commonly referred to in the media for the coronavirus is 3.4% from the WHO.  This number is based on actual cases of those who are confirmed with the virus.
The flu fatality rate provided by the CDC includes an estimate of individuals who had the flu but were not confirmed while the fatality rate for the coronavirus does not include those who had the coronavirus but were not confirmed.  This is why the flu fatality rate is .1% and the coronavirus fatality rate is 3.4%!
The two rates are like comparing apples to oranges.  By doing so the coronavirus fatality rate is way overstated when compared to the flu and the media has created a worldwide crisis and panic by reporting this!
The coronavirus is not more fatal than the flu based on current data.  It is much less fatal than the flu based on current data.

Hanson is right.  Once we determine an accurate best estimate of the population that has coronavirus antibodies, then we will know it is safe to get back to work. 

We probably have enough information already to allow many Americans to get back to work.

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