Monday, 6 April 2020

LATEST NUMBERS: Govt. Models Overestimated Hospitalizations by 8 Times; ICU Beds by 6.4 Times; Ventilators Needed by 40.5 Times

This is quite stunning.
The government models used to predict the extent of the coronavirus pandemic are off by huge margins in the latest coronavirus tracking numbers. 
The current government predictions reported by Covid Tracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/ ) for Apr 5th show:
– All beds needed: 179,267
– ICU beds needed: 33,176
– Invasive ventilators: 26,544

Those were the predictions.
The actual numbers as recorded at The Covid Tracking Project:
– Actual hospitalizations: 22,158
– In ICU: 5,207
– On ventilator: 656
Comparing Projections (https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections ) with reported data by Covid Tracking (https://covidtracking.com/data/ ) for Apr 5:
- Overestimation of hospitalizations: 8 times
- Overestimation of of ICU beds needed: 6.4 times
- Overestimation of ventilators needed: 40.5 times
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This is a complete failure of estimates and models.
The actual numbers show:
– Overestimation of hospitalizations: 8 times
– Overestimation of of ICU beds needed: 6.4 times
– Overestimation of ventilators needed: 40.5 times

This is completely unacceptable.
At this time in history and with the technology in place it is absolutely shocking that this could happen!
Millions of Americans will lose their jobs due to these panic-driven lockdowns.
The first people to be fired should be the ones who drove this panic!

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