Thursday, 18 January 2018

Trump Has Lost the Most Support in These States Since November 2016

Since winning the 2016 election, President Trump hasn’t won much support from outside of his base. Still, his supporters love him, and everyone else is either indifferent or flabbergasted at what’s happening at the highest levels of government. Trump has been wildly unpopular throughout the first quarter of his presidency even in states where he won by giant margins.
Polls by Gallup and SurveyMonkey have tracked his popularity via net approval ratings state by state, which give us a sense of the president’s popularity in any given part of the country. FiveThirtyEight transposed the polls’ net approval ratings against Trump’s November margin of victory to get a number indicating where approval has dropped the most.
In the following 15 states, this number represents the biggest rift between Trump on Nov. 8, 2016 and Trump eight months into his presidency.

15. Colorado

Who won the 2016 election: Hillary Clinton
Trump didn’t win Colorado in November, but the Centennial State was a “swing state” column for most of the election. It’s leaned blue for a long time now, but people who lean Republican fill Colorado, too. And we weren’t sure until Election Day which way it would swing. Clinton ended up winning by 5 points, but Trump’s popularity has fallen considerably since then. He was unpopular to begin with, but now his net approvals are -21. That’s a 17-point drop. 

14. Kansas 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
Kansas is an interesting state. It’s a deep-red state that Trump won by 20 points in 2016. But, like every state on our list, supporters are turning on him. According to the polling data, his net approvals are still in the black — hovering at around +3. But again, he won the state by 20 points, and that +3 represents a -17 drop. It could be Kansas gave Trump policies a whirl, and they didn’t pan out well. Or, Kansas voters are having their patience tested. 

13. Texas 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
The great state of Texas is “purpling” — demographic shifts are turning it more Democratic with time. But it’s still a deeply conservative state, despite some deep blue portions, such as Austin and Houston. Trump won Texas by a 9-point margin in 2016, which is closer than many expected. But now, his net approvals are -9, representing an 18-point swing. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in Texas in 2020 when the state is as “purple” as ever. 

12. South Dakota 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
It’s hard to imagine Trump will ever have his name etched on a mountainside like the four presidents immortalized on Mount Rushmore. South Dakota, the home of the famous memorial, is another state in which Trump’s supporters are fleeing. He won the state 30 points over Clinton, but his recent net approvals are +10. So he’s still popular but much less so. 

11. Tennessee 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
It makes sense that Trump’s approval numbers would be the most vulnerable in the states where he had the most support. People in Hawaii, for example, probably aren’t going to start liking him any less. But in states, such as Tennessee, where voters overwhelmingly turned out for him, he has more ground to lose. And he’s lost it in Tennessee. He won the state by 26 points in November, but his net approvals are now sitting at +6. That’s a 20-point swing. 

10. Minnesota 

Who won the 2016 election: Clinton
We’ve already discussed Colorado, one of the states Trump lost but remains on this list. Minnesota is the other — a state Trump lost to Clinton by a 2-point margin. But if the election were held today that margin would likely be much wider. Trump’s net approvals in Minnesota are floating at around the -22 mark, a reversal of 20 points. From here on out though, the states on our list are much redder and more conservative. 

9. West Virginia 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
You’d be hardpressed to find a state in which Trump is more popular than West Virginia. Trump absolutely destroyed Clinton in the 2016 election, winning by a 42-point margin. He pandered to the state’s coal-mining heritage and slammed the swamp monsters in D.C., and it clearly did the trick. Though the enthusiasm is still strong, it has waned since Election Day. Today, his net approvals are at +21, down 20 points. 

8. North Dakota 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
The second of the Dakotas, Trump’s popularity has sagged more in the North than it has in the South. Trump’s margin of victory was larger in North Dakota, ultimately coming in at 36 points. But people’s support of the president also dropped more in the North than in the South. His net approvals in the state sit at +15, down 21 points since November. 

7. Utah 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
Utah presents an interesting situation when it comes to politics. The state has a large Mormon population, and Trump was very unpopular among that population before the election. For that reason, an unlikely name surged on the ballot: Evan McMullin. McMullin won 21% of the overall vote, but Trump still won by 18 points. Today, his net approval sits at -3. Like North Dakota, that’s a drop of 21 points. 

6. Indiana 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
Over the past few elections, Indiana has become an interesting battleground. It’s typically conservative, but Barack Obama won it in 2008. And prior to the 2016 election, the state’s governor, Mike Pence, wasn’t widely known. Things are different now, as Trump won “bigly” by a 19-point stretch. His net approvals have sagged, though, and now sit at -3. That’s a change of -22, meaning he might not win if the election were held again today. 

5. Kentucky 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
The Bluegrass State seemed rabid with enthusiasm over Trump, but a lot of people have soured on the president since he’s assumed office. Trump won Kentucky by 30 points over Clinton in November, but his net approvals are now only +8. Like several other states, that’s still a strong level of support, but it’s a large drop (22 points) from the enthusiasm people felt about him before the inauguration. 

4. Nebraska 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
Support for the president is still there in Nebraska, but it isn’t nearly as strong as it is in states like Kentucky or West Virginia. His net approvals sit at +3. But consider how big his margin of victory in November was: +25, which gives that +3 some perspective. A rift has opened up over the past nine months that has shifted his approval ratings by as much as 22 points. 

3. Idaho 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
Though it borders deep-blue states in Washington and Oregon, the Gem State is still a deeply conservative place. For that reason, Trump won Idaho easily with a margin of 32 points over Clinton. But his recent net approvals show us Idaho voters’ enthusiasm has evaporated. He’s still popular with a +9 net approval rating, but that’s a difference of 23 points compared to his electoral margin. 

2. Oklahoma 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
Oklahoma could easily be described as “Trump country.” It tends to vote Republican without fail, and Trump even pulled one of his Cabinet members — EPA administrator Scott Pruitt — from Oklahoma. But again, the enthusiasm is waning. He won the state by 36 points over Clinton, but his net approvals have dropped to +12, a drop of 24 since last November. 

1. Wyoming 

Who won the 2016 election: Trump
In Wyoming, Trump dropped an electoral hammer on Clinton. He won the state by 46 points. Conversely, Clinton’s largest margin of victory came in Hawaii, which she won by 32 points. But since November, that 46-point margin has been tainted by steadily dropping net approval ratings. Now, those net approvals in Wyoming are at +20. So, yes, he’d still probably have a crushing victory if the election were held today. But those numbers indicate a drop of support that’s hard to ignore — down 26 points.

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